Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Models and Handling Anomalies in Short-Term Wind Speed Data

Jayasri, P A and Manimegalai, R and Reshmah, C S and Vaishnavi, S (2024) Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Models and Handling Anomalies in Short-Term Wind Speed Data. In: Advances in Distributed Computing and Machine Learning. ICADCML 2024. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems (955). Springer, Singapore, pp. 137-147. ISBN 9789819718412

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Abstract

The economic and reliable functioning of power systems with a high level of wind power penetration depends on accurate forecasts of wind speed. Weather forecasting models are useful for understanding and forecasting wind speed trends and their implications. Predictions vary across regions, and there is a need to evaluate them before performing time-series analysis for wind energy production. In this work, the proposed system evaluates weather forecast models such as GFS and Meteoblue with data from three places in the southern region of India, including Aranvoyal, Palakkad, and Sengottai, over a period of two years. Live data from these wind farms is used in combination with the forecasts to identify suitable forecast model for the region. This work also takes into consideration that the incoming live data is prone to environmental and mechanical disturbances. It uses linear and decision tree regression to handle anomalies in the dataset. The analysis reveals that Meteoblue forecasts provide better results with 76.04% accuracy, and linear regression provides good imputation results for a period of three hours.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Global forecast systems; Meteoblue; Power; Time-series analysis; Weather forecasting model; Wind energy production; Wind power penetration; Wind speed; Wind speed data; Wind speed forecast
Subjects: A Artificial Intelligence and Data Science > 3D Printing and Design
C Computer Science and Engineering > Virtual Reality
D Electrical and Electronics Engineering > Renewable Energy
Divisions: Computer Science and Engineering
Depositing User: Users 5 not found.
Date Deposited: 31 Jul 2024 09:03
Last Modified: 31 Jul 2024 09:03
URI: https://ir.psgitech.ac.in/id/eprint/928

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