Contrastive self-supervised mamba network with physics-guided AI-score fusion for dissolved gas prediction in power transformers

Mohamed Iqbal, M (2026) Contrastive self-supervised mamba network with physics-guided AI-score fusion for dissolved gas prediction in power transformers. Measurement, 286. p. 122454. ISSN 02632241

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Abstract

Power transformer failures pose critical risks to electrical grid stability, with dissolved gas analysis (DGA) serving as the foremost non-invasive technique for incipient fault detection in oil-insulated assets. While existing deep learning approaches to DGA gas concentration prediction are constrained by single-transformer training paradigms, absence of physics-informed constraints, and inability to exploit fleet-level monitoring knowledge, this paper proposes CS-Mamba-PAF, a Contrastive Self-Supervised Mamba Network with Physics-Guided AI-Score Fusion addressing all three limitations simultaneously. The framework integrates three complementary innovations: (i) a geomagnetically-aware sub-daily-to-daily pre-processing pipeline incorporating IQR outlier clipping and STL seasonal-trend decomposition, calibrated specifically to real sub-daily online monitoring data; (ii) a physics-guided AI-Score token encoding weighted agreement of four IEC 60599:2022 diagnostic methods, namely the Duval Triangle (DTM), Rogers Ratio (RRM), IEC Ratio (IRM), and Dornenburg Ratio (DRM) as a continuous 3-dimensional IEC-compliant feature vector concatenated with 14-dimensional STL gas features; and (iii) a cross-unit SimCLR contrastive pre-training strategy with hard negative mining across 12 heterogeneous transformer units, feeding a four-layer Mamba Selective State Space Model decoder trained with a composite loss incorporating IEC gas ratio physics constraints. The framework is evaluated on the Lewis et al. (2022) dataset which is the largest open-access multi-transformer DGA archive comprising 316,203 sub-daily records from 13 UK nuclear power station transformers monitored between 2010 and 2015. On the 185-day Transformer M test set, CS-Mamba-PAF achieves
RMSE of 0.06 ppm, mean MAPE of 1.8%, and
of 0.978, representing improvements of 82.9% and 64.7% over the Gaussian Process Regression baseline in
RMSE and mean MAPE, respectively. Leave-one-unit-out (LOUO) evaluation across all 13 transformer units yields a mean RMSE of 0.118 ± 0.022 ppm with a coefficient of variation of 18.6%, confirming robust within-fleet generalisation across the heterogeneous Lewis fleet.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Electrical and Electronics Engineering > Power Transformers
Divisions: Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Depositing User: Dr Krishnamurthy V
Date Deposited: 12 Aug 2026 08:22
Last Modified: 12 Aug 2026 08:22
URI: https://ir.psgitech.ac.in/id/eprint/1907

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